Almost 1 in 3 Brits may have already had coronavirus – and most had NO symptoms, experts find
AROUND one in three Brits - 17.3million people - may already have been infected with coronavirus, experts say.
Researchers from the University of Manchester believe 29 per cent of the UK population had had the disease by April 19.
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And they say the majority of those would not have had any of the tell-tale symptoms of Covid-19, including a fever and persistent cough.
The findings gives some hope that a bulk of the population has developed some immunity to the deadly bug.
The researchers made the discovery after analysing published local authority data to assess the cumulative impact of infection since the Covid-19 outbreak began.
This has enabled them to calculate the R-value - the number of people infected by one person with Covid-19 - within each local authority area.
From the 144 Local Authorities analysed by the team, they estimate each infected person infected 2.8 others on March 23 before lockdown.
COMMUNITY INFECTION
However, this R-rate has now fallen to 0.9 as a consequence of social distancing combined with the natural consequences of cumulative community infection.
Their analysis suggests unreported community infection may be more than 200-times higher than confirmed figures show.
It means there are as many as 237 cases for each reported case. As of April 19 there were 73,000 reported cases.
Dr Adrian Heald from The University of Manchester, one of the researchers, said: “Covid-19 is a highly infectious condition and very dangerous for a small group of people.
"However a much larger group seem to have low or no symptoms and have been unreported.
“This study tries to provide an estimate of the number of historic infections – and gives us all a glimmer of hope that there may be light at the end of the tunnel.
“We show how effective social distancing and lockdown has been. Though this is a tragedy, it could have been far worse”.
Dr Heald added that the findings, which are published in the International Journal of Clinical Practice, may help to inform the Government's decision in easing the current lockdown.
The Consultant Physician in Diabetes and Endocrinology at Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust, part of the Northern Care Alliance NHS Group, said: "We also demonstrate that like any virus, Covid-19 has taken its natural course and infected a significant percentage of the UK population.
“The more people that are exposed to this - or any - virus, the less easy it is for further transmission to occur.
“Government policy can only moderate the impact using measures like widespread testing, social distancing and personal protective equipment.
“The social and economic impacts of lockdown have been very difficult, but we believe this analysis may aid policy makers in a smoother transition to reducing social containment and sustainably managing the Covid-19 disease.
Like any virus, Covid-19 has taken its natural course and infected a significant percentage of the UK population
Dr Adrian Heald
“This will allow policy makers to avoid a ‘one size fits all’ approach to pandemic policy, which does not consider the variation in both infection rates and impact across localities.”
Mike Stedman from Res Consortium who carried out the data analysis said: “Using our experience working with the NHS on improving patient services, we conducted this work in our own time as we felt we could make a valuable contribution to the public and policy makers by calculating the progression in the local and national daily infection rate.
“The figures are not perfect, with the numbers of severely ill patients as a proportion of the total cases being used as a market for estimates of wider infection.
“Only extensive antibody testing could give us a more accurate picture - but as that is only just becoming available, we believe this form of modelling is important in informing the best approach to unlocking the population.”
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Dr Heald and Mike Stedman argue that incremental lifting of current social restrictions as soon as possible is vital to minimise further damage to the economy and the impact of prolonged social containment.
However, they add, this must be balanced against containing the current pandemic and minimising future waves of infection.
Speculation is currently mounting over potential plans for social "bubbles" to be created in the next step to ease lockdown, but the Government has not yet made an official announcement.