Commuters heading back to work likely to spark deadly second wave of virus, study warns

After images of packed tubes and buses emerged yesterday, a study has warned the massive fall in transport use was one of the main reasons coronavirus was brought under control.

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Lead researcher Professor Maziar Nekovee, of the University of Sussex' School of Engineering and Informatics, concluded that "premature lifting of mobility restrictions... will result in the return of COVID-19s exponential grow i.e. a second wave of the epidemic."

The study said: "Instead mobility should be kept restricted while new measures, such as as compulsory wearing of masks in indoor public spaces, contact tracing and monitoring of social distancing, get implemented in order to allow a safe exit."

It said the lack of travel between different areas was one of the main reasons for slowing the spread of the virus by changing "the spreading mechanism by isolating the infected population into spatial clusters."

Instead of people spreading the virus between areas by travelling, they were only able to infect a very small "cluster" of people even if they did leave their homes.

Yesterday Transport Secretary Grant Shapps warned the daily commute was a "life or death" gamble.

He told the BBC: "This is a life and death situation and I do encourage people to look at the guidance for travelling on public transport.

"If you absolutely need to travel, wearing a face-covering - which is something you make at home rather than taking away PPE stock from medical situations - may be helpful and we ask people to do that.

"Not facing people, being side by side or back to back is better."

Transport use has been climbing higher and higher over the last few weeks.

The Government put out fresh guidance on how to travel to work, telling workers to avoid public transport if at all possible.

It said if people do have to use it, they should try and face away from other people.

Employers have been asked to stagger start and finish times to avoid people having to get public transport at peak times.

Mr Shapps said only one in ten workers would be able to commute via public transport and people should wear masks.

London Underground tube stations now have markers on platforms to show people how far they should be standing apart from one another.

Last night Housing and Community Secretary Robert Jenrick warned there would need to be marshals in place on the London Underground to ensure people were not packing into cramped carriages.

Yesterday - the first day back at work for many - Transport for London reported a rise of 8.7 per cent in people using the Tube from 6am t0 10am, compared to last Wednesday - nearly 5,700 additional journeys.

The manager of Waterloo station said services rose to 45 per cent of normal capacity on Monday after running at 25 per cent at earlier stages of lockdown.

A spokesman for Transport for London said they aim to have 75 per cent of tubes running again and 85 per cent of buses back on the road by next week.