UK will have days with zero coronavirus deaths by late June, say experts
BRITAIN will be recording zero daily Covid deaths by late June, experts predict.
The number of fatalities from the coronavirus outbreak has been steadily dropping by around 30 a day, according to leading statisticians.
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The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show there were around 400 coronavirus daily deaths in all settings across England and Wales in early May.
ZERO DEATHS
Today, the Government announced a further 545 deaths across the UK, bringing its official tally to 35,341.
Commenting on the ONS figures, Professor Carl Heneghan from the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, predicted days with no Covid deaths by late next month.
He said: "I think by the end of June we'll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness, if the current trends continue in the deaths.
"But we will continue to have these sporadic up and downs for about four to six weeks."
He added: "People shouldn't panic or get out of context if suddenly, say, we've had no deaths for four days, and now we've had eight or ten, because we'll see that as you go down lower numbers, [there will be] a bit more variation in the actual data."
DAILY DROP
Statistician Dr Jason Oke, also from Oxford University, said: “Looking at trends over time, still there is a steady decline in deaths and if you were tempted to project that trend into the future you would have to be cautious.
“They are [deaths] dropping at about 30 a day. And the last day the ONS reports it’s just below 400 deaths [in total]. So you can do the maths and wonder if that continues, for how much longer will we see Covid deaths.”
They are [deaths] dropping at about 30 a day. And the last day the ONS reports it’s just below 400 deaths [in total]. So you can do the maths and wonder if that continues, for how much longer will we see Covid deaths.
Dr Jason Oke, Oxford University
Although the pandemic has sparked a rise in deaths across most age groups – they have dropped in young men.
Experts claim this is because they are at extremely low risk from the bug.
And that many fatalities involve dangerous behaviour such as speeding, but the pandemic has curbed hazardous habits.
Risk expert Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, from the University of Cambridge, said: “This is a practically and statistically significant fall in the death rate among young men aged 20 to 24.
“We expect a hump [rise in deaths] due to essentially risk taking behaviour of young men. That has disappeared completely during lockdown.
“We would have expected 106 deaths over this period, and we have actually seen 69, a 35 per cent reduction.”
Overall, there have now been almost 45,000 Covid fatalities across the UK.
ONS data shows 39,071 deaths involving the bug in England and Wales up to May 8.
Once figures from Scotland and Northern Ireland are added, and the latest hospital deaths included, the national total is 44,639.
It comes as ONS bosses claim the number of care home residents killed by coronavirus in England and Wales has hit 15,000.
Its latest report shows 10,000 have been killed by the bug in homes up to May 8.
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But Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at the ONS, said the current tallies suggest the number is now 50 per cent higher.
He said: “So when you add those all together we’re probably around about 15,000 Covid-related deaths of care home residents in total.
“Most of them in care home settings, but a significant chunk have happened in hospital.”
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