‘Almost 300,000 will DIE and 5.4M will be infected with coronavirus by July in US’ if social distancing ignored
ALMOST 300,000 Americans will die and 5.4 million people will be infected with coronavirus by July if social distancing rules are ignored, according to new data.
The University Of Pennsylvania's Wharton School model projected a surge in nationwide fatalities if the COVID-19 guidelines were flouted during the reopening process.
Their estimate shows millions of people could sicken in the next two months and there could be more than 290,000 deaths if Americans don't keep 6 ft apart and stay vigilant.
The news comes as all 50 states enter the government's phased reopening process after a two-month lockdown with varying rules.
The university's comparison model shows that the numbers would decrease to 4.3 million cases and 230,000 deaths by July 24 if people stick to the social distancing efforts.
The forecast shows that if states lift lockdown orders but maintain social distancing, there will be 3.1 million infections and 172,000 deaths.
The best result would come about if every state maintained lockdown restrictions as of May 17 with social distancing measures: in that case, there would be 2.8 million infections and 157,000 deaths.
But a separate model from the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence forecasted that deaths will surge past 113,000 by mid-June.
This projection was compiled from nine models from separate institutions and predicted that in the next 25 days, around 22,000 more Americans will die from the virus.
"The new forecast for cumulative US deaths by June 13 is about 113,000, with a 10 percent chance of seeing fewer than about 107,000 and a 10 percent chance of seeing more than 121,000," the Center's Director, Nicholas Reich, said.
By that date, the specific ensemble forecast average is 113,364 fatalities, according to their findings.
Currently, there have been 1.5 million infections in the US where the death toll has topped 92,000 — but President Trump has urged the country to get back to work amid mass unemployment.
Numerous lockdown protests have taken place as a result of the stricter stay home measures, which saw large gatherings in Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and North Carolina.
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Some states, like New York, which is the epicenter of the country’s outbreak, were able to flatten the curve as residents stayed home and socially distanced themselves.
Other states with a lesser number of cases that have reopened have seen a rise in COVID-19 cases as they began to welcome back local businesses.
Georgia's Republican Governor Brian Kemp was called out by Trump for moving forward with some reopenings on April 24, even thought the state’s shelter in place order expired on April 30.
